By Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
With investments, it can be said that a stock index enters “correction” territory when it falls by more than ten percent, and this alarming drop can put many investors on edge. A lot has happened recently in large part due to coronavirus concerns resulting in canceled meetings and reservations, supply chain disruption, an oil price war and on top of that we’re in a presidential election year. As an investor or onlooker, you may be wondering what this really means and what to expect next. So let’s look at some of the common questions.
Is it the beginning of a bear market?
Let’s go back and define market correction, there is no universal definition but most consider a correction has occurred when a major index such as the S&P 500 index or Dow Jones Industrial Average, declines from its most recent peak by 10% but still less than 20%. Historically the drop returns or “corrects” prices to their longer-term trend as this is referred to as the “correction”. It’s not really possible to predict whether a correction will reverse or turn into a bear market, meaning that the market falls by 20% or more. As of last week Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all entered a bear market. Since November 1974 there have been twenty-two market corrections, four (five if you include the current) of which became bear markets.
What if this is the start of a declining market?
It’s easy to forget that the market cannot and should not go up indefinitely. After a long run of a bull market, shares of stock are selling at a premium, a correction would be better seen not as a sign of doom but yet as a sign of opportunity. While bear markets can be scary, they are part of long term investing and they don’t last forever. The average bear market has lasted 17 months which is far shorter than the average bull market and they can end as abruptly as they begin.
How to survive the market dip?
We don’t know how the coronavirus will play out – nor does anyone, really. While we navigate our way to progress the markets will remain bumpy. This uncertainty is uncomfortable and driving volatility in the markets. We are experiencing an economic slowdown as we’re all affected by the social distancing. What we don’t know is how long it’s going to last, but we can be almost certain to expect growth to rebound, even if it doesn’t happen this year.
In China, where the outbreak originated, a decline in new cases of the coronavirus is already happening, showing that travel bans and canceling public gatherings is working to stop the spread. Economically, as a country we are in better shape than the 2008 bear market, because our large banks aren’t as highly leveraged, meaning they’re better equipped to handle this now than they were back then. Worrying about the spread of the virus and the bear market is counterproductive, but being prepared is a good approach.
Is there anything I can do?
Have a plan. A written financial plan can help you weather the storm and calm your nerves. Think of your short and long term goals and stay the course as the market gets bumpy. Consider your risk, it’s easier to take risks when the market is rising, however, market downturns can provide a time to consider adjusting your asset allocation. Remember you can’t lose any more than the money you put into your investments and regular rebalancing will help keep your portfolio on target. If you are tempted to sell and buy again later, CNBC has demonstrated if you had invested in the market from 1999 to 2018 and not touched it, your money would have doubled. But if you had jumped in and jumped out of the market and perhaps missed out on the ten best performing days in the timeframe, your returns would be cut in half. Lastly, it is important to consider your life stage or age. As young investors have time to recover, those nearing retirement would favor diversification and a more conservative approach. It might be a good idea to avoid selling assets and postpone planned withdrawals for large expenses. It's important to remember that a loss is not official until funds are withdrawn and it's recorded on paper.
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